![]() Here's what's happened so farįew analysts contend he can stomach the latter, and so we may face a long siege of the peninsula over the winter months, as Kyiv returns Moscow to the boundaries it stole in 2014-15, or worse. ![]() ![]() Ukraine's counteroffensive is now underway. (Photo by Anatolii Stepanov / AFP) (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images) Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images Ukrainian servicemen of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" fire a rocket from a BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher towards Russian positions, near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on June 13, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Most observers agree it is the singular goal of this counteroffensive to break that land bridge.Ī Crimean peninsula isolated from the Donbas is much harder to resupply and defend, leaving Russian President Vladimir Putin with a stark choice: expose his military assets in Crimea to a long standoff, or cut his losses and pull them back. The priority is progress along the expansive southern front, which marks the valuable land corridor between occupied Crimea and the Donbas, and the Russia mainland. Western satellites are likely providing clear information about Moscow’s recalibrations to Kyiv.Īt present, Ukraine appears to be keeping its options open. As Russia has moved to respond to Ukraine’s advances in recent weeks, it will have given away key signals about its readiness, supply issues and priorities. No single strike is terminal, but a slow accumulation of damage reduces Russian options and can, eventually, lead to cracks in their forces’ defensive network, or their basic ability to function. Rykove sits close to Crimea, in an area whose railway supply lines are already probably impaired by recent surgical Ukrainian attacks. Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Ukrainian soldiers shoot rounds into Russian positions outside Bakhmut on June 19, 2023. ![]() The attack is also, they noted, more than 100 kilometers (62 miles) inside enemy territory, suggesting either an acute lack of awareness among Russian ranks of the new dangers they face from longer-range NATO-supplied missiles, or an inability to adapt and alter their presence accordingly. Open-source analysts have noted the huge blast pattern suggests significant secondary explosions. This painstaking work continues, with a reported blast Sunday in the occupied village of Rykove, in the Kherson region, that leveled an apparent ammunition dump. The slow drip of explosions at fuel depots, headquarters and on railway lines has been about weakening Russia’s ability to withstand and adapt to the first major assaults. “But nevertheless, those who fight shall win and to those that knock, the door shall be opened.”įor months, we have seen a patient bid by Ukraine to erode the readiness of Russian defenses. “We would definitely like to make bigger steps,” Ukraine’s President Zelensky acknowledged in a BBC interview. And this is likely why we are seeing a slow – and at times incremental – start to this first phase of open operations. But the success of Ukraine’s onslaught still rests on whether it can surprise and outwit Moscow’s forces – not in grinding close combat, but on a larger strategic level. ![]() It was never going to be simple, and would always involve the sort of ghastly, face-to-face combat shown in the special forces video. The dust kicked up adds to the sense of chaos, and the dense panic and brutality of this counteroffensive’s start. A Ukrainian soldier from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center fights his way through a trench, apparently on the southern front, shooting Russian soldiers repeatedly at point-blank range. ![]()
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